The headline number
Of the 41 PRISM runs completed in this period, five received a GO verdict. That means 95% of the ideas evaluated needed meaningful course-correction before they were investor-ready — either structurally (KILL), directionally (PIVOT), tactically (DEFER), or conditionally (CGO).
This is not a pessimistic finding. Most of the PIVOT verdicts led founders to a stronger idea within 30–60 days. The DEFER verdicts identified timing issues that, when resolved, cleared the path to a GO. Early course-correction is the point of verification.
Failure pattern analysis
Across the 59% KILL and 18% PIVOT verdicts, we coded each case against the 12 PRISM lenses. These are the lenses that triggered failure most frequently. A single verdict may trigger multiple lenses.
% of KILL + PIVOT verdicts (n=32) where this lens triggered. Multiple lenses may trigger per verdict.
By sector
The 41 verdicts span six sectors. Fintech and SaaS dominate — both because these are the highest-volume sectors at pre-seed, and because founders in these categories tend to make the most aggressive claims about market size and competitive moat.
Methodology
This report is a public ledger, not a marketing document. The numbers below explain exactly what is counted, what is excluded, and why.
A verdict is logged only when a complete PRISM run produces one of five outcomes: GO, CONDITIONAL GO, PIVOT, KILL, or DEFER. Pulse runs abandoned before the 12-lens pass completes are excluded. Internal test runs on synthetic briefs are excluded. Every entry is a real submission from a real founder.
This report covers December 2025 – May 2026 only. Earlier verdicts from the private beta are excluded because the scoring rubric differed in that period. We do not publish data we cannot stand behind entirely. All 41 verdicts in this dataset were scored under PRISM v2.0.
No founder names, company names, or sector details precise enough to identify a submission are published without explicit consent. Sector labels are assigned by the analyst and reviewed for accuracy. To request exclusion from aggregate data, email verdicts@thrivefinity.uk.
This dataset will be updated quarterly. The live, interactive version of this data lives at /verdict-distribution. If you want the raw data for research purposes, contact research@thrivefinity.uk.
Before you raise
95% of founders in this dataset needed course-correction. Most of them fixed it. The ones who found out in a meeting with a managing partner didn't.
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