The Decision Intelligence Brief grades each intelligence pillar A–E. Idea Validation resolves to one of five verdicts — KILL, PIVOT, DEFER, CONDITIONAL GO, or GO. Pre-Launch Verification tags every claim VERIFIED, SUPPORTED, FLAG, or UNVERIFIABLE. This page explains what each outcome means and how we decide. Aggregate distributions will be published anonymised once the sample is statistically meaningful — not before.
Decision Intelligence Brief
Each Decision Intelligence Brief produces four verified intelligence pillars — Market, Audience, Competitive, and Trend — graded A–E with a confidence score. The Executive Verdict is our human-signed tier; the machine-only Decision Brief uses the same scale, unsigned.
All claims independently confirmed by named, dated, accessible primary sources. No material gaps. Rare — reserved for pillars where every assumption survives full adversarial stress-testing.
Core thesis supported by primary sources. Flags raised where evidence is partial or contested. Most well-researched briefs with credible supporting data resolve here.
Significant gaps in evidence, unverified claims, or a weak thesis. Key assumptions require independent validation before this pillar can support a major strategic decision.
Material claims unverifiable or directly contradicted by primary evidence. Making a major strategic bet on a D-graded pillar carries substantive risk of a materially wrong outcome.
Thesis unsupported or contradicted by primary evidence. A strategy built on an E-graded pillar is likely to fail — including widely held beliefs and investor narratives that don’t survive primary-source contact.
Grades are per-pillar. An Executive Verdict may grade B+ on Market Intelligence and C on Competitive Intelligence — both are disclosed in full. We do not average grades into a single composite; executives deserve the complete picture, not a diluted number that obscures where the gaps actually live.
Idea Validation · Build Verdict
Every Idea Validation run — whether Idea Signal (free) or Build Verdict (human-signed) — resolves to one of five outcomes. An honest process returns hard verdicts often. KILL is a normal result, not a failure of the service. We will publish the real aggregate distribution anonymised and dated once the sample is large enough to be meaningful.
Idea has a fatal flaw that cannot be pivoted around — the market doesn’t exist, unit economics are irreparably negative, or competition has already won. A large share of early, unvalidated ideas don’t survive structured validation, and a clear KILL early is far cheaper than discovering the same flaw after you build.
Core insight is valid but the execution path fails one or more lenses. A significant change to ICP, channel, or model is required.
Idea is sound but market timing, regulation, or conditions are premature. Specific reassessment triggers are defined.
Proceed only after resolving specific, measurable, time-bound conditions named in the report.
All 12 lenses pass. Market validated. Unit economics viable. Distribution path identifiable. Proceed with conviction.
Pre-Launch Verification · Investor Verdict
Every claim in your pitch deck, landing page, or one-pager is individually verified and tagged with one of four statuses. The Investor Verdict is our human-signed tier; the Claim Verification uses the same classification system, unsigned. Each claim gets a named rebuttal — the exact challenge an investor will raise, phrased the way they’ll phrase it.
Claim independently confirmed by a named, dated, accessible primary source. Stands as submitted — or with minor precision improvements noted inline.
Directionally accurate but overstated, imprecise, or sourced from a lower-quality reference. We rewrite the claim to what the evidence actually supports — and supply the primary source for the rewrite.
Claim is risky, contested, or a known investor trigger. A named rebuttal is supplied — exactly the challenge an informed investor will raise, phrased the way they’ll phrase it in the room.
No primary source can confirm or deny this claim at the time of verification. We state what would constitute sufficient evidence and recommend removing the claim from any investor asset until that evidence exists.
The Failure Lenses · Idea Validation
These are the lenses that most often carry the failure when an Idea Validation returns a hard verdict. A single verdict may trigger multiple lenses. We’ll publish how frequently each one fires once the sample is large enough to report honestly — not before.
Is the demand real, specific, and large enough — backed by evidence, not a top-line TAM figure?
Is there a defensible wedge incumbents and fast followers cannot easily replicate?
Do the numbers work — CAC against LTV at a price the target customer will actually pay?
Does the team have the domain insight and capability to execute this specific idea?
Are there regulatory, compliance, or legal barriers that change the viability of the idea?
Is there a credible path to the first hundred customers that doesn’t depend on paid ads alone?
Sectors We Cover
Idea Validation evaluates ideas across these sectors. When we publish the aggregate distribution, the sector breakdown will be included — anonymised and dated.
Why We Publish This
When we publish the aggregate distribution, it will be the simplest possible check on ourselves. If almost every verdict were GO, you’d know we were telling founders what they wanted to hear. An honest validation process returns hard verdicts often — KILL is a normal outcome, not a formality. We won’t adjust the data to look more encouraging, and we won’t publish numbers before the sample can support them. Read why honest validation kills most early ideas →
Every company in this space has an incentive to hide its error rate. We choose the opposite. The failure lenses are explained because founders considering Idea Validation deserve to know what the methodology surfaces — not just that we exist. If we get a verdict wrong, we issue a correction on the errata page and reflect it here accordingly.
If a published verdict contained a factual error, we correct it publicly and note the correction here. The correction log lives on the errata page. The verifier accountable for every verdict is named on the verifier page. There is no anonymous sign-off at ThriveFinity.
Methodology Note
When we publish the aggregate distribution, it will be a public record, not marketing. The notes below explain exactly what will be counted, what will be excluded, and why.
A verdict is logged only when a complete Idea Validation run or QUAD analysis produces one of the five outcomes: GO, CONDITIONAL GO, PIVOT, KILL, or DEFER. Test runs that are abandoned before the 12-lens pass is complete are excluded. Internal test runs on synthetic briefs are excluded. Every entry in this log is a real submission from a real founder.
When published, the distribution will cover a clearly dated period. Earlier verdicts from the private beta (prior to December 2025) will not be included because scoring rubric versions differed and we do not publish data we cannot fully stand behind. Any cumulative totals will always be labelled as such.
No founder names, company names, or sector details precise enough to identify a submission will be published without explicit consent. Sector labels (e.g. "Fintech", "Health") are assigned by the verifier and reviewed for grouping accuracy before publication. If you submitted a brief and want your verdict excluded from any aggregate data, email verdicts@thrivefinity.uk.
Every product offers a free signal in under 1 hour. Human-signed verdicts carry the 30-Day Honest Verdict Guarantee — from £149 (Build Verdict) to £499 (Investor Verdict and Executive Verdict).
Decision Intelligence Brief
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